D2.4: Analysis of the biogenic feedback mechanisms in the future climate
Within the FOCI project, Stockholm University’s Simo Hakala is currently investigating how the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from terrestrial vegetation are changing due to human activities and how these changes impact the climate as BVOCs are transformed into aerosol particles. Global simulations are being conducted using the Norwegian Earth System Model and the analysis is complemented with the outputs of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
In general, the findings are that the emissions of BVOCs are increasing with CO2-driven changes to the Earth system and are subsequently cooling the climate through aerosol-cloud interactions. However, the potential impact of this process has been decreasing since the pre-industrial period due to elevated CO2 concentrations, reduced forest cover due to land use changes , and anthropogenic aerosols. Therefore, terrestrial vegetation has been losing its capability to fight against the climate change. Depending on the scenario we will follow in the future, this trend can either be reversed or will continue.
Leave a Reply